SBECONOMICS back into action

What is economic recovery going to look like post this pandemic - UPDATED

There is rampant speculation about how the global economies could recover after the Covid 19 crisis is over. First of all, it is very unclear when countries are even able to start the recovery process and how much damage has been done from the health and thus induced economic crisis. Here are my three scenarios which I drafted on March 22, 2020. I recently added another scenario on April 15th 2020. Let me also say that it is much more important in my mind to make sure that the health crisis is foremost tackled to save as much lives! #Blib Dihei Keep in mind these are speculations: 1) U-Shape recovery with overshooting due to consumers getting back into spending quickly. Spending is done more aggressively than anticipated and the GDP growth rate may top pre-crisis level in the very short term. The growth rate will then revert back to the steady state fairly quickly. This scenario is a wishful thinking but could potentially happen. Recovery would come in the 3rd quarter after ...

Interesting analysis on stock market returns and US presidents

The claim is that under democratic US presidents the stock market annual averages were up by 6.7% historically since 1900 compared to +3.0% for republican presidents. The highest returns have been observed during periods with a Democrat President and either the House/Senate split between Democrats and Republicans or fully Republican. Negative returns have been achieved during a Republican presidency with the Senate Republican and the House Democrat (on average -1.7% annual returns). Though such a correlation observation has validity, business and economic cycles often are only partially influenced by the political parties in charge. Other factors such as central bank policies, global economic forces and timing of economic cycles have influence over the stock market. Thus I would regard this correlation matrix as interesting but not telling the entire story. A Republican or Democratic president may come into office during an economic favorably or disadvantaged time. For example, Bill ...

SBECONOMICS

Search This Blog